Prediction Markets Are More of a Casino Than Crypto

2026-01-15
  1. Prediction markets do not support long-term investing.
  2. A prediction market always has a clearly defined outcome.
  3. If you lose, you go to zero. The risk is no lower than trading perpetuals and higher than spot. With perpetuals you can add to a position; in prediction markets there is no such flexibility.
  4. That means prediction markets cannot be used for investing.
  5. The technical implementation of prediction markets is not decentralized, so they have nothing to do with Web3. In terms of positioning, they are closer to CEXs such as Binance.
  6. So prediction markets are even more brutal than memecoin roulette.